GOOGLE'S GROWING APP GAP

by Howard Tullman
March 23, 2014

GOOGLE’S GROWING APP GAP  

Two weeks ago was the 25th anniversary of the World Wide Web. Even for those of us who were there at the very beginning, it’s hard to remember a time before the Internet. But the sad truth is that the Web, as we once knew it, is disappearing right before our eyes. Does anyone type “www” as part of an URL anymore? Does anyone type a URL anymore or really want to type anything? I think not.

We’d rather swipe a screen or press a button on our phone or, better yet, just tell our phone what it is that we need. In fact, whether we like to admit it or not, we’d actually much prefer for our devices to “know” what we need before we ask based on our preferences, interests, location, prior behaviors and profiles. Then, without having to ask, we’d just have the answers handy and readily available when, where and whenever we need them. I call this modality “MOCIAL” – the merger of mobile and social – which is driven and enabled by constant connectivity, high-velocity computing, and by the massive stores of data about all of us which are now accessible to virtually anyone at little or no cost. These new capabilities and tools set standards of speed and performance as well as expectations of immediacy and accuracy that even the very best websites can’t hope to compete with. And the competitive bar just keeps rising. The truth is that we’re all suckers for speed and simplicity – save me time and make me more productive and I’m yours.

Today’s reality is that websites are pretty much yesterday’s news and the vast majority (to the extent that they haven’t already been practically abandoned by their owners) are destined very shortly to be orphaned or consigned to the virtual dustbin. They’re slow on a good day and too often plagued by latency issues; they’re fundamentally static rather than interactive; far too many still aren’t built or optimized for mobile use; and even the most conscientious webmasters can’t really keep the data on these sites current because everything is changing way too fast. High velocity computing can rapidly supply the framework and the appropriate context for delivery, but that’s not the same as effectively generating authentic and engaging content as opposed to rote and routine responses. And very frankly, adding a couple of widgets, a sidecar Twitter feed, or a few other flashy bells and whistles doesn’t contribute anything much to the utility equation or to the perceived value of a visit. Too often searching the web these days is an exhausting and unproductive waste of time unless you know precisely what you’re looking for.

And things aren’t ever going to get better because all the positive movement and all the vectors are pointing in the wrong direction for anyone to even imagine a day when websites will once again matter.  Mobile online use has convincingly overtaken the desktop and the usage gap is growing every quarter across all cohorts and age groups.  In addition, and most strikingly, over 80% of the current mobile online use is now channeled opaquely through applications rather than overtly and transparently through browsers. This migration to mobile applications (and the closed-off connection conduits that they create) have created what I call the “App Gap” for Google because you can’t measure and you certainly can’t monetize what you can’t see.

And the rapidly widening social gap is even more problematic for Google.  The vast volume of meaningful traffic, the influential action and engaged activity, and ALL of the buzz and energy are focused today on social actions and sharing and not on search or research. Search is a sporadic, need-based and linear process. When it’s done in the moment, it’s done. Social is an emotional, expansive and ongoing sharing experience which is not only contagious, but exponential in that it grows and builds on itself.  As a rule of thumb, and at least until you get burned or reach a certain age, the more you share, the more you’re inclined to share in the future because you become increasingly psychologically invested in the process. Information may want to be free, but it turns out (no surprise here) that we want to be with our friends. There are a number of complex and powerful drivers behind these group and cohort-based behavioral changes, but one thing is abundantly clear – none of this is good news for Google.

As the novelty of “search” has worn off and the pure excitement of spontaneous exploration has dissipated, search has changed from a joy to just a job. It’s an incidental and reflexive part of our day and nothing more. The more efficient and informed that search became; the less interesting and serendipitous it was. It was the triumph of the dispassionate engineers – all about dispatch and discipline (speed and results) with all the drama and passion of discovery being drained away. In a sense, Google did its job too well.

Today search is a heavily-manipulated mirror (reflecting back and confirming what we already know) rather than a window on new worlds. Among other critical differences from the much more intriguing Facebook interest graph approach is that in order to launch a Google search, you pretty much have to know where you’re headed and you need create at least a modestly informed description of what you’re looking for. The search box doesn’t fill itself. It’s not an adventure; it’s a task. It’s not a place we want to go these days; it’s a place where we have to go when we need to accomplish some narrow and specific inquiry. The web today is about work, not wonder. And it’s lonely out there as well because search is a solitary enterprise and we’re all social animals.

The App Gap is just Google's latest problem as it struggles to continue to matter in a marketplace where the playing field has changed radically while Google's core offerings really haven't. Google needs to find a way into these new activity spaces, but many of its belated and reactive responses (and even its new and somewhat novel offerings) have fallen way short of the mark. Google was great when the web was about links, pages and anonymity. But when Facebook made it personal and the smart phone made it social and mobile, Google simply lost its way. You can’t engineer emotions and you can’t arbitrarily construct connections and engagement with others.

Shopping and social are where it's at today and, in those sectors, Google's become an also-ran. Maybe not quite as much of a yawn as Yahoo, but nothing to write home about for sure. Far more people search every day for products on Amazon than on Google even though its new Product Listing Ads (PLAs) are arguably better suited to mobile search than Amazon's offerings. The problem is no one knows they're there because no one sees them. And why is that? Because search isn't sexy or exciting any more. If there’s one thing worse than being a chore or a commodity, it’s being a tool or a utility. And the situation in the social sphere is even worse. Google+ has plenty of what I would characterize as “manufactured” members, but they're generally ghosts and they’re not engaged with the service and – worst of all - they're simply not sharing. G+ has about 2% of the social sharing activity today while Facebook has over 50%, Twitter is at about 24% and LinkedIn and Pinterest account for another 19%.

If you don’t have a substantial seat at the table, it’s hard to have anything meaningful to say about the game or to the players. Without a window into Facebook’s world; some perspective on Pinterest; or any idea of what’s happening on Instagram, Twitter or WhatsApp, it feels like Google’s on the outside looking in and you have to wonder how much longer Google’s advertising model will make sense to the major media and advertising buyers. If you’re not where your advertisers’ targets are spending their time and money, at the end of the day, you’re nowhere.  

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