Does It Make Sense to “Make” Anything Anymore?
Are we finally there? Should the last man out of tonight’s late shift at the plant turn out the lights for good? Notwithstanding the success of “Kinky Boots” on Broadway, is the end of traditional manufacturing in sight? I’d say “yes” - albeit somewhat sadly.
There are at least six different drivers for the demise. And they aren’t the obvious ones that you’d imagine – I’m not talking about outlandish labor costs, ridiculous OSHA regulations, or protestors more concerned about pollution and plant life than production - although we can certainly thank the bozos in Washington for making many things in the world of manufacturing much worse over the last two decades. My thoughts are a little more basic.
Here are my 6 D’s:
(1) Dirt. We lost the race for raw materials years ago as China and other more-foresighted countries scooped up vast quantities of all kinds of the mission-critical minerals, compounds and rare earths which are so essential to the production of the critical components of virtually everything cellular or digital in the world today. We don’t have either the materials themselves or the right mindset any more. Maybe coal will stage a comeback. Here’s hoping - not.
(2) Durability. In a world of instant gratification and rampant disposability - where the packaging we negligently discard costs considerably more than the products we consume - who really cares about manufacturing durable goods and long-lasting products when we’ll be sick of the stuff anyway once it’s no longer shiny ? Shiny never lasts. In addition, new 3D printing technologies will permit and encourage the development of even more low-cost, immediate and discardable kinds of products – all in the “use once and toss” family and none of which is good for our production facilities, our population, or our planet.
(3) Demand. Frankly, we’d rather not own anything these days. High maintenance costs, devastating depreciation of everything physical, rapid obsolescence driven by accelerating technologies, there’s really no reason to buy anything for the long run. We’re users and renters – not owners anymore. Zip cars are the “cars for people who don’t want one” and that says a lot more about our lives today than merely about our transportation preferences.
(4) Desire. Life today just isn’t about things because the best things in life aren’t things. It’s not really that the nature of things ever changes; the fact is that our desire for certain things morphs over time and our appetites change as well. There’s no such thing as pride of ownership either – it’s not politically correct – because we all know that people are more important than things and bragging about your property and your possessions just isn’t cool any more. We’re seeing more and more that bigger isn’t necessarily better. And we’re also becoming much less materialistic. In the “Mad Men” world of not too long ago, they would say that 4 things defined a man: his home; his car; his wife; and his shoes. Just think about how little this formulation has to do with the way we see our lives today and you’ll appreciate the massive changes coming down the pike.
(5) Demographics. I wrote recently that kids don’t care about cars, but the fact is that things are much worse for manufacturers than that. Apart from the prospect that today’s kids may be the first generation that really isn’t upwardly mobile relative to their parents, the fact is that - as soon as they reach the age where they would themselves determine and dictate durable goods purchases, they are finding that they don’t have the dollars to do anything. Their folks stop buying them dolls, digital devices and indulging their every desire and they figure out pretty quickly thereafter that major purchases cost real money which they don’t have and can’t borrow. And instead of starting to save in order to eventually satisfy those deferred desires, they spend their time sucking down lattes from Starbucks. Everything today for Gen Yrs is about the experience and the adventure and the trip and not about things which are mainly a downer and a drag.
(6) Digital. Digital is dictating everything and it’s worth a whole column itself. But one thing’s for sure – the kids today (and basically anyone with a brain) realizes that good ideas - regardless of their size - last much longer and are worth a great deal more than anything you can make with your hands and that - in this world of increasing connectivity - ideas can spread across the universe in an instant. Even more importantly, in these times of increasingly scarce resources, ideas (and digital goods) have an amazing and unique property – unlike even the best physical objects. You can share an idea with someone else (and/or everyone else) and then (unlike an apple or a Mac) – all of you have the shared idea – it’s enhanced and expanded in its scope and its power - not diminished or lessened by sharing and broad distribution – and that’s how we’ll make our world will grow in the future – manufacturing new ideas – not new iPads.
PP: “You Get What You Work for, Not What You Wish for”
