So it turns out that – contrary to both the common wisdom and our own expectations - video didn’t really kill the radio star after all. We continue to re-learn the same lesson over and over again that – by and large – in the areas of media and communication – the majority of our new distribution technologies and channels are consistently cumulative rather than destructive. We’re also seeing that the “second” screen – the phone or tablet that sits beside us while we watch TV these days - is also adding to and enhancing the viewing experience rather than degrading or replacing it in our homes.
Having said that, there are clearly devices and products which are well on their way to the dustbin. As an example, I definitely wouldn’t want to be a fax machine manufacturer these days for love or money. There’s probably still a residual space and market opportunity for document scanners for a little while longer (although the next generation will likely be single-shot, image capture devices rather than the painfully-slow, mechanical transport beasts we use now), but , for the moment, “Send me a fax right away” is pretty much right up there with “Buy me a buggy whip while you’re at the General Store” in terms of comments we rarely expect to hear any more.
At the same time, from the Department of Unintended Consequences, there are a host of changes and new behaviors coming down the pike that we really didn’t expect or anticipate and these are going to impact our day-to-day behaviors and our businesses in a number of challenging ways. Here are a few – mainly driven by the merger of mobile and social and the advent of constant connectivity that you should be thinking about.
(1) Whither Wikipedia?
If everyone’s on their phones and other mobile devices, who’s actually gonna be left sitting in front of their desktop every day editing articles for Wikipedia? And honestly are they the kind of people that we would want to have their hands on the levers anyway? There seems to be a real risk of seeing the Groucho doctrine of adverse selection at work. (You’ll recall that Groucho famously said that he wouldn’t care to be a member of any club that would actually have him.)
Turns out that nobody knows the answer to these questions, but what is very clear – from the recent NY Times article and others - is that (a) it’s getting harder and harder for Wikipedia to attract and promote new editors and (b) it’s obviously a challenge for even the most digital of us to do any serious editing on a 3 inch mobile screen while you’re on the move. So stand by and keep your fingers crossed because it’s going to be a bumpy ride. (See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/can-wikipedia-survive.html.)
(2) So Long Search
Guess what else it sucks to do on your phone? Search. Search is a big pain and getting the answers back is even worse. Try accurately typing in a long-tail, multi-term reasonable search request for anything that really matters and you get a boatload back of “stuff”, but very little of substance or consequence. It’s just more lists and more links and more work. We don’t really want ads or alternatives on the run – we want fast, simple answers. We want to ask our phones for answers – not interact with them or be interrogated by them while we struggle to get to the right result. How about the helpful hints and shortcuts they offer? To date – not so much of either. So we need to be thinking about new solutions and new protocols for search and we need them soon.
(3) Paperless is Pretty Much a Phantasy
Anyone who thinks that digital technology to date has helped us make a big leap forward in the paperless revolution should take a look around just about any office, business or school in the country. We’re still drowning in paper for a variety of reasons and it’s not going to change any time soon. In fact, as we find more and more occasions when we need to convert something digital to a hard copy to share at a meeting or sign on the fly, we’re actually going to see the return of more printer stations that connect wirelessly to our devices at places like airports and more paper all around.
But, in many other cases where we’re being aggressively encouraged to use our phones in lieu of paper, I’m pretty sure it’s still a bad trade. I especially love to watch the daily juggling acts of the digital mavens that take place in the TSA lines at the airport. You think that it’s fairly easy to exhibit your boarding pass on your phone (don’t let it go to sleep while you’re waiting in the line), and you also need your driver’s license; you’ve got to dump your drinks; slip off your shades so they can see your eyes; get ready to bust your laptop out of your briefcase unless you’re TSA-Pre; and remember to put your little cosmetics baggie on the conveyor belt as well. Turns out it’s just as easy (or more so) to have a printed copy of your boarding pass with you when you enter the gauntlet. And forget about the iWatch being that much better since it’s almost impossible to contort your arm and your body to swipe the thing without dropping something else or inadvertently turning the watch display off.
PS: “You Get What You Work for, Not What You Wish for”
