Senior Director - Business Development Commercial Assesments

At Lilly, the work is demanding because patients are waiting. We unite caring with discovery to help make life better for people around the world, knowing that every decision, every detail, and every day matters. Headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, our over 50,000 employees around the globe take on complex challenges to discover and deliver life-changing medicines, strengthen how health is understood and managed, and support the communities we serve. This is hard, urgent, selfless work—but it’s work worth doing. If you’re driven by purpose and ready to bring your best to work that truly matters for patients, we invite you to join us. 

Senior Director, Business Development Forecasting & Analytics

Corporate Business Development | Reports to VP, Corporate Development and BD Strategy

The Role:

This is not a forecast-maintenance role. We're looking for someone who builds conviction — who can walk into an unfamiliar therapeutic area, do the primary work, and produce a commercially defensible point of view where little internal precedent exists. You'll be the person in the room who has done the work and can stand behind it.

Reporting to the VP of Corporate Development and BD Strategy, you'll lead end-to-end commercial assessment for licensing, acquisition, and partnership opportunities across markets new or adjacent to Lilly's current portfolio — and build the forecasting infrastructure that raises the quality of BD analytics across the organization.

White Space Assessment & Market Intelligence

Lead commercial assessments from early landscape scoping through full deal-stage forecasting, with a clear and defensible POV at each stage

Rapidly develop substantive expertise in unfamiliar therapeutic areas — synthesizing epidemiology, treatment algorithms, competitive dynamics, payer landscapes, and emerging clinical data

Proactively size white space opportunities before formal deal processes begin; track signals across pipelines, regulatory trends, and payer policy to anticipate where markets are heading

Market Research Leadership

Design and lead primary research programs (qualitative and quantitative) with physicians, payers, patients, and channel partners — especially where secondary data is thin

Commission and critically evaluate third-party research; translate external deliverables into actionable commercial insight

Build Lilly's institutional knowledge base in new markets through documented findings, assumptions, and forecast rationale that persist beyond individual deals

Forecasting Model Development

Build flexible, reusable forecasting models with modular architecture, shared assumptions, and clear documentation

Deploy approaches suited to data-scarce environments: analogue models, epidemiology-driven patient flow frameworks, expert elicitation, and scenario trees

Model the full commercial picture — uptake trajectories, competitive erosion, pricing and access assumptions, channel dynamics, lifecycle scenarios, and risk-adjusted probability of success

Go-to-Market & Channel Strategy

Evaluate innovative commercial approaches — outcomes-based contracting, risk-sharing structures, novel launch sequencing — and assess their viability in new market entries

Analyze channel architecture trade-offs (specialty pharmacy, buy-and-bill, direct-to-patient, GPO/IDN) and their impact on revenue, access, and deal valuation

BD Partnership & Executive Influence

Serve as the commercial analytics partner to BD leadership from initial screening through due diligence, term sheet development, and integration planning

Present forecasts to senior executives with the confidence to defend assumptions, acknowledge uncertainty honestly, and make clear recommendations — not just ranges

Engage directly with external counterparties and advisors during diligence, representing Lilly's commercial perspective with authority

Minimum Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or advanced degree in a scientific field
• 10+ years in pharmaceutical or biotech commercial strategy, BD analytics, market research, or strategic forecasting

Preferred Qualifications:

• Master’s degree
• Meaningful exposure beyond a single therapeutic area
• Demonstrated track record building commercial conviction in new or ambiguous markets — not just maintaining existing forecasts
• Experience leading primary market research: study design, vendor management, and synthesis into commercial recommendations
• Strong financial modeling skills: bottoms-up and epidemiology-based revenue forecasting, DCF/rNPV analysis, sensitivity and scenario modeling
• Deep understanding of how pharmaceutical markets work: treatment paradigm dynamics, prescriber behavior, payer decision-making, launch benchmarks, competitive response
• Familiarity with innovative go-to-market models (value-based agreements, outcomes-based contracting, digital-first launch) and pharmaceutical channel architecture
• Confident communicator who can present a supported commercial view to senior leadership and stand behind it
• Strategy consulting or life sciences investment banking background; experience with RWE/HEOR; knowledge of FDA/EMA regulatory pathways; prior work building forecasting infrastructure across a BD organization

Lilly is dedicated to helping individuals with disabilities to actively engage in the workforce, ensuring equal opportunities when vying for positions. If you require accommodation to submit a resume for a position at Lilly, please complete the accommodation request form (https://careers.lilly.com/us/en/workplace-accommodation) for further assistance. Please note this is for individuals to request an accommodation as part of the application process and any other correspondence will not receive a response.

Lilly is proud to be an EEO Employer and does not discriminate on the basis of age, race, color, religion, gender identity, sex, gender expression, sexual orientation, genetic information, ancestry, national origin, protected veteran status, disability, or any other legally protected status.

Our employee resource groups (ERGs) offer strong support networks for their members and are open to all employees. Our current groups include: Africa, Middle East, Central Asia (AMECA), Black Employees at Lilly (BE@Lilly), Chinese Culture Network (CCN), EnAble, Evolve, Lilly Indian Network (LIN), Organization of Latinx at Lilly (OLA), Pride (LGBTQ+ Allies), Veterans Leadership Network (VLN) and Women’s Initiative for Leading at Lilly (WILL).

Actual compensation will depend on a candidate’s education, experience, skills, and geographic location.  The anticipated wage for this position is

Full-time equivalent employees also will be eligible for a company bonus (depending, in part, on company and individual performance). In addition, Lilly offers a comprehensive benefit program to eligible employees, including eligibility to participate in a company-sponsored 401(k); pension; vacation benefits; eligibility for medical, dental, vision and prescription drug benefits; flexible benefits (e.g., healthcare and/or dependent day care flexible spending accounts); life insurance and death benefits; certain time off and leave of absence benefits; and well-being benefits (e.g., employee assistance program, fitness benefits, and employee clubs and activities).Lilly reserves the right to amend, modify, or terminate its compensation and benefit programs in its sole discretion and Lilly’s compensation practices and guidelines will apply regarding the details of any promotion or transfer of Lilly employees.

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